Serre lungo l'Eufrate

Scorte per le pecore di un campo beduino

Vista sull'Eufrate da Dura Europos in un giorno di tempesta

Passeggiata lungo l'Eufrate

tempesta di sabbia sull'Eufrate

Halabye sull'Eufrate

Vetro ad Armanaz

Will there be peace?

Why Syria Will Not Get the Golan Back: Why Israel and the Arabs will continue at War
By Joshua Landis
February 28, 2009, Syria Comment

[...] The only reason Israel re-opened indirect negotiations with Syria last year is because of its fear of Iran and Hizbullah. The US has done everything in its power to eliminate these two compelling incentives to negotiate, all the while stating that it encourages negotiations. This contradiction is apparent to Syria and convinces it that the US is not serious about helping Syria to regain the Golan or to encourage the final application of international law on borders.

When the State Department insists that Syria must give up all support for Hizbullah and Hamas before gaining US support for negotiations or engagement, Syria can only understand this as a demand to surrender. ‘Non-interference in Lebanon” means helping to disarm Hizbullah and allowing pro-US and Israeli Lebanese to gain the upper hand there.

Were Syria to actually cut relations with Hizbullah, Hamas and Iran before negotiating with Israel, there would be no negotiations. Israel would have won. It would have no incentive to give up the Golan. As Netanyahu has stated many times, “the Syrian border with Israel has been Israel’s safest for 35 years.” Syria can only pressure Israel across the Lebanese border or by supporting Palestinian resistance. Once these fronts are quite, Israel will have the peace it demands - but without making painful concessions on the Golan.

Step by Step Diplomacy will not Work

The US is playing a difficult game with Syria. It insists on making Syria pay for every diplomatic concession with an equal concession of its own. The problem with this chit-for-chit game is that Syria has few chits to play. Yes, Syria can reopen the American school it closed a few months ago. It can once again agree to issue visa’s to Fulbright professors and American scholars. It can allow Amid-East and other State-Department funded organizations back into Syria. It can let out a few political prisoners, such as Michel Kilo, but these small tokens will quickly be exhausted. The US has a rich array of sanctions and privations it has placed on Syria that it can lift one at a time for many years. Syria has nothing of comparable worth, save support for Hizbullah, Lebanese sovereignty (which, to America, is practically the same thing as disarming Hizbullah) and support for Hamas. These cards absolutely necessary for successful negotiations over the return of the Golan. Syria cannot give them up before getting back the Golan, as the US and Israel are demanding.

Syria cannot trust the US. Even if US diplomats and politicians assure Assad that they will help Syria get back the Golan if it shows good faith by giving up Hizbullah and ending support for Hamas, Syria cannot bank on such promises. The US has demonstrated no ability to force such concessions from Israel since Eisenhower pressured it to give up the Sinai following the 1956 Suez Crisis. Bush the father had to cave on the issue of halting settlement expansion. Clinton failed to get Barak to give up all the Golan in 2000, a expectation that led Hafiz al-Assad to travel to Geneva to meet with Clinton.

How will the Obama administration square its contradictory policy demands: one, that it wants Israel-Syria peace; and two, that Syria must cut relations with Hizbullah and Hamas prior to engagement for such a peace?

Israelis argue that they cannot trust Syria to break with Hizbullah, Hamas and Iran once Syria has gotten back the Golan. In fact they are not even convinced that “flipping” Syria is worth the Golan. Syria will not trust Israel to give back the Golan once Syria has broken with its allies. In fact, Syria does not believe it should have to break with its allies to get back its rightful territory. [...]

Pecore e Vasi

La zona di khanasser, Syria - January 09

Interview with Bashar Assad

Well, I'm back to blogging. I have posted below this article on the situation of Ghaza according to the Syrian President. As usual, he provides an 'alternative' perspective on the conflict and a quite interesting one, I'd say.

'Peace without Syria Is Unthinkable'

In an interview with SPIEGEL, Syrian President Bashar Assad discusses the war between Israelis and Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, the threat of an Iranian nuclear bomb and his expectations for incoming United States President Barack Obama.

Editor's note: The following interview was conducted on Thursday with Syrian President Assad prior to the announcement of unilateral cease-fires by Israel and Hamas.

SPIEGEL: Mr. President, the world community is protesting Israel's aggression in Gaza, but they have also called upon Hamas to relent. No one in the Arab world has as much influence on Hamas as you do. Couldn't you have tempered the fighters?
Assad: It always depends on how one uses one's influence. Our most urgent objective is to stop the attack. The fighting must come to an end, and this applies to both sides. In addition, the Israeli embargo against Gaza must end, because sealing the borders is strangling the population. The blockade is a slow death. People don't just die as a result of bombs, but also because their supplies of medications and food are cut off.

SPIEGEL: Israel will only lift the blockade once the rockets are no longer being fired at its cities.

Assad: If the people in Gaza have only the choice between a slow death caused by the blockade or death in battle, they will choose to fight. This is why lifting the embargo is an indispensable part of an agreement. We agree with Hamas on this point. Basically, Hamas is not the problem in this conflict, but Israel.

SPIEGEL: Much of the world considers Israel's military action to be disproportionate. But Hamas provoked it by shelling southern Israel. Each additional rocket results in more violent retribution and increases human suffering.

Assad: That sounds logical. But politics is about realities, not logic. The fact is that for six months Hamas complied with the cease-fire that had been agreed upon. The Israeli government, on the other hand, continued to constrict the Gaza Strip during that time. One has to be aware of this background information.

ABOUT BASHAR ASSAD

Bashar Assad is considered one of the most influential heads of state in the Middle East. He studied medicine and trained in London to become an eye doctor. In 2000, he took over as president from his father, Hafis Assad. Originally, Hafis Assad had envisioned his elder son as his successor, but Bassil died in an accident. Bashar Assad deftly overcame resistence to his leadership from within the old guard in the military and the Syrian Unity Party, and he has held on to power far longer than many had expected.

Domestically, he initially positioned himself as a reformer, rudimentarily privatizing parts of the ossified state- managed economy. After a brief "Damascus Spring" of intense national political and social debate, he launched a severe crackdown on government opponents. In terms of foreign policy, 43- year- old Assad has maintained hardline policies against Israel and he has been a vociferous critic of Washington's Middle East policies. President Assad is a member of the Islamic faith of the Alawites, a Shiite sect.

SPIEGEL: The United States and the European Union see this background differently. They consider Hamas to be a terrorist organization that wants to destroy Israel.

Assad: Oh, here we go with the same old labels and clichés. That's the American way. Whether you call it terrorism or resistance, and whether you like Hamas or not, it is a political entity that no one can ignore. There is no truth to the notion that Hamas is holding the people hostage, as some people claim. Hamas captured an absolute majority of votes in the internationally recognized parliamentary election three years ago, a landslide victory. You cannot declare an entire people to be terrorists.

SPIEGEL: Do you believe that all of the tools of resistance Hamas is using, which make it a terrorist organization in our view, are justified?

Assad: Definitely. There is no doubt about it. How can you accuse Hamas of terrorism without defining Israel's actions as terror? During the most recent six-month ceasefire, Israel targeted and killed more than a dozen Palestinians, but no Israeli died. And yet Europe remained silent. More than 1,000 people have already died as a result of the Israeli aggression in the Gaza Strip. Just this morning, I saw the picture of a three-year-old girl who was killed. Where is the West's outcry?

SPIEGEL: We can understand the argument of justified resistance against a military power. But Hamas has acquired its reputation as a terrorist organization primarily through suicide bombings against Israeli civilians. Do you intend to excuse that, as well?

Assad: I don't want to talk about methods of killing. But what is the difference between a bomb worn on the body and one dropped from an airplane? Both of them kill people. Personally, I do not support the concept of suicide bombings. This is not part of our culture. But whether you condemn them or not, suicide bombings are a reality.

SPIEGEL: No Western politician wants to sit at the same table with Hamas.

Assad: That's not true at all. Many European officials have sought a dialogue with Hamas, especially recently.

SPIEGEL: With your mediation?

Assad: The Europeans have learned from experience. That's why they are now talking to the Hamas leadership here in Damascus -- not publicly, of course. I don't want to mention any names. But I do think it's telling that they include people who are especially critical of Hamas in their speeches. We try to help where we can.

SPIEGEL: The key Hamas representative abroad, Khaled Mashaal, was granted asylum in your country. He is at the very top of the Israelis' hit list. Many consider him to be far more radical than the Hamas leadership in Gaza. Are there any conditions to your hospitality?

Assad: Mashaal has changed. He already mentioned the borders of 1967 in 2006. What does that mean? It means that he accepts a two-state solution. Besides, a few months ago he also said that he would sign anything that the Palestinian people see as the right thing to do.

SPIEGEL: That's a very broad interpretation. In our view, it is little more than indirect recognition.

Assad: Talking about the 1967 borders means more than indirect recognition. We Syrians see it this way: We do not recognize Israel and Israel is still our enemy -- it occupies part of our country, the Golan Heights. If the Israelis withdraw from Golan, we will recognize them. First comes peace, then recognition -- not the other way around. We have been grappling with our relationship with Israel for more than 30 years now. With Hamas, the process began only three years ago. You have to exercise patience.

SPIEGEL: But the dramatic situation in Gaza requires more than thinking within a historic timeframe.

Assad: That's why we are active here in Damascus and have made proposals and presented them to Hamas, the French, the Turks and the government of Qatar…

SPIEGEL: …which invited countries last week to an Arab crisis summit in Doha. What do you see as a solution?

Assad: This is my peace plan: First, there must be a cease-fire, and it must happen at the same time on both sides. In the ensuing 48 hours, but within no more than four days, the Israelis must withdraw completely from the entire Gaza Strip.

During this time, negotiations to lift the embargo must take place. This could take a while, because controlling the borders is a very complicated issue, but it should take no more than a week. In addition, the people in Gaza need international guarantees that they will not be attacked again.

To see the rest of the interview click here